Viimeiset 48 tuntia ovat olleet yksiä hulluimmista tunneista ikinä cryptovaluuttamarkkinoilla on koskaan ollut tätä kokemusta. Tämä tapahtuu FTX:n jälkeen, joka on kolmanneksi suurin cryptocurrency exchange behind Binance and Coinbase, paused user withdrawals and announced they were seeking to raise funds to avoid bankruptcy. What makes this more surprising is that in January 2022, FTX had raised funds at a $32 billion valuation.
These events began to unfold on the 2nd of November when a leaked Alameda Research (a principal trading firm with very close ties to FTX) balance sheet was published on Coindesk. This balance sheet raised concerns after showing the company held a large amount of illiquid altcoins including $2.16 billion of locked FTT (FTX’s native token). It seems possible that these coins were collateral assets that Alameda used to take out loans in USD backed stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies. When this data was released on the 2nd of November, the total undiluted market cap of FTT was $3.35 billion. Ultimately, this meant that any significant sale of FTT on the open market would push the price significantly lower and likely result in margin calls for Alameda who would have to sell some of their FTT to maintain their loans and avoid liquidation. Subsequently, on November 6th when Binance announced they were liquidating $580 billion of FTT in their treasury, this is exactly what happened.
Tiistaiaamuna The Wall Street Journal raportoi, että FTX:stä oli nostettu noin 1.4 miljardia dollaria, iltapäivällä se oli saavuttanut hämmästyttävän 6 miljardin dollarin. Myöhemmin samana iltapäivänä monien ihmisten pelko toteutui, kun FTX keskeytti nostot. Sittemmin on havaittu, että FTX pyrkii korottamaan $ 8 miljardia täyttämään jäljellä olevat nostopyynnöt. Monet ihmettelevät, miksi käyttäjien varoissa on 8 miljardin dollarin musta aukko, ja monet olettavat, että osa näistä varoista käytettiin Alamedan marginaalipyyntöjen rahoittamiseen FTT:n hinnan romahtamisen jälkeen. FTX:n ainoa toivo on nyt kerätä varoja näiden pyyntöjen noudattamiseksi. Koska Binance kuitenkin luopui ehdotetusta hankinnasta viime yönä, tämä näyttää yhä vaikeammalta…
Either way, whether FTX survives or collapses entirely, this event will provide governments and regulators with plenty of ammunition to demand new regulations on cryptocurrencies and associated companies. The contagion effects on projects that hold their treasury funds on FTX and other crypto firms that have exposure to either Alameda or FTX can hardly be measured at this point. Either way, this sudden crash of a ‘poster-child’ of the industry is a major disaster for the whole market.
In slightly better news, U.S. CPI Inflation came in soft at 0.4% M/M and 7.7% Y/Y, slightly lower than expected. In the short term, this is bullish for risk assets and seems to have slowed down the FTX-triggered crash. However, it remains to be seen if this will have any significant lasting impact on the cryptocurrency market in the medium-term given the FTX news.
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