Since the start of January, most leading macro markets have experienced a reversal around their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, BTC has shown resilience and fought the cross-asset sell-off. This divergence is likely driven by the fact that there has been over $1 trillion in net liquidity added to the market since the bottom in October, primarily driven by the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan, helping to off-set the damage the Fed is doing to risk-on assets such as the crypto market. Considering BTC tends to be somewhat of a liquidity sponge, it tends to outperform other assets when there is a boost in liquidity. However, the jury is still out on whether BTC’s performance indicates the end of the bear market for crypto or a temporary outlier. Despite BTC’s recent outperformance, it’s still catching up to significant rallies in other markets between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. An important note is that the S&P 500 has never seen a bear market bottom before the unemployment rate began to rise, and this is yet to be the case. Furthermore, the yield curve is currently the most deeply inverted it has been since the 1980s, ultimately signalling that long-term interest rates are lower than short-term interest rates. An inverted yield curve has been a perfect predictor of the last seven recessions since 1960, ultimately implying that it’s likely the market isn’t out of the woods yet.
Kun tuotot ja riskivarat eroavat toisistaan, historialliset mallit viittaavat siihen, että muut omaisuuserät saavuttavat nopeasti myynnin. Vaikka tuotot ovat liikkuneet eksponentiaalisesti viime kuun CPI-tietojen jälkeen, markkinat odottavat niiden vakiintuvan viime vuoden korkeille tasoille. Vaatii todennäköisesti erittäin kuumia inflaatiotietoja ja merkittävää koronnostoa seuraavan FOMC:n kokouksen jälkeen 22. maaliskuuta, jotta riskiomaisuuserät laskettaisiin seuraavan kerran. Siihen asti BTC:n odotetaan jatkavan kantamaa odottaen seuraavaa vihjeään.
From a technical perspective, it is clear from the weekly chart that Bitcoin has been trading between two significant demand and supply zones. The bulls will be hoping for a weekly close above the $25,000 supply zone, which would light the way towards the massive $28,800 to $30,000 resistance, the Head and Shoulders neckline. An important contributor to the bullish scenario is that EMA20 and EMA200 are beginning to converge, with a potential cross in the coming weeks. The importance of this should be considered, as EMA20 crossing below EMA200 back in September accurately predicted short-term market direction. Bears will rejoice at the fact that many traders believe that a final Elliot Wave 5 sell-off is to come. This would likely result in a break below the $15,500 – $16,500 November market botTyhjä.
Edistyessämme kaikki katseet kohdistuvat nyt CPI-tietojulkaisuihin. Yhdysvaltain kuluttajahintaindeksitiedot 14. päivänä todennäköisesti sanelevat FOMC:n korkopäätöksen tuloksen 22. päivänä. Volatiliteetti on korkea noina päivinä, joten varovaisuutta tulee ehdottomasti noudattaa, varsinkin velkaantuneissa positioissa.
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